An Alternative Energy Scenario Developed with ELTE's Contribution
The results of an extensive international study examining European energy management over several years were published in the October issue of Nature Communications. The Hungarian segment of the research was co-authored by José Campos and Béla Munkácsy, two researchers from the Department of Environmental and Landscape Geography at ELTE.
The study highlights a dimension of energy management and planning—the so-called sufficiency concept, or as the researchers put it, the importance of the human factor—that should be a key element in strategic documents, but is generally omitted from government plans and long-term technical concepts. As a result of the research,
an energy model relying 100% on renewable energy sources has been developed.
This model, known as the Collaborative Low Energy Vision for the European Region (CLEVER), outlines an alternative energy scenario for Europe by 2050. The European-level scenario takes into account the human factor and includes recommendations to help Europe become independent from energy resources sourced outside the continent. It also supports the increased use of renewable energy, while considering the varying conditions and cooperation opportunities across different regions.
Most energy scenarios focus on technological solutions and financial impacts, often neglecting the inevitable social and environmental consequences. Energy strategists typically do not account for the demand side and especially fail to consider sufficiency factors, even though these could lead to significant savings while potentially improving quality of life. There is little consideration for how to reasonably reduce people's demand for services and products, while still ensuring livable conditions and an acceptable standard of living for all.
According to the researchers, with the right measures,
a 50% reduction in final energy demand by 2050 compared to 2019 could be achieved,
with 40% of this reduction coming from the sufficiency measures mentioned above. This decrease would allow for a 77% renewable energy share by 2040, which could rise to 100% by 2050, with only a very small portion needing to be imported from outside Europe. Furthermore, the need for various carbon capture technologies could be largely eliminated. By taking sufficiency into account, a fairer distribution of energy supply levels among countries could also be achieved.
These proposals would provide significant relief for Europe in the future, both socially and economically. Therefore, the authors of the study hope that their message reaches the decision-makers and energy management professionals who can incorporate their recommendations into the strategies that shape European energy management.
Photo: Gusztáv Jakab